What Data Tells Us About #EU2024 With One Month To Go

It’s the final countdown. One month to go until we know the results of the 2024 European Parliament election. Thanks to the seat projection model based on the most recent available voting intention polls we can assess how the next European Parliament could look like.

On the dedicated #EU2024 page of this blog, you can explore the latest polling data analysis and European Parliament election seat projection. Find out about the trends in detail and get updated data regularly. Here below I’ll walk you through the main takeaways of the data, as of 9 May 2024.

First, there is very little change in the aggregated numbers for how many MEPs each of the European Parliament groups can expect to send to the next European Parliament. But under the surface, there are some interesting trends worth analyzing.

European Parliament seat projection chart
European Parliament seat projection chart

The top-line results from this month’s European Parliament election seat projection:

  • European People’s Party (EPP): Will remain the largest political group with stable support, with 176 current MEPs and 183 estimated seats.
  • Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): Minimal variance, maintaining 139 current MEPs with 137 estimated seats.
  • Identity and Democracy (ID): Significant rise from 58 MEPs to 94 estimated seats, indicating a potential surge in populist sentiment and far-right consolidation.
  • Renew Europe: Decrease from 102 MEPs to 87 estimated seats, driven by the collapse of the liberals in Spain and expected losses for the governing liberal parties in France.
  • European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): Increase from 68 MEPs to 82 estimated seats driven by mixed results with a surge in Italy and a drop in MEPs from Poland.
  • Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA): Significant decrease from 72 current MEPs to 48 estimated seats, suggesting potential challenges or realignment in voter support.
  • European Left (The Left): Minimal change, with a slight increase from 37 MEPs to 43 estimated seats.
  • Non-Inscrits (NI): Moderate decrease, with 52 current MEPs and 46 estimated seats, reflecting ongoing dynamics within smaller political factions amidst a changing landscape. The Hungarian Fidesz party and the Italian Five Star Movement are both counted to this group as of today.

Find out how to vote in the 2024 European Parliament election on this official website.