What Data Tells Us About #EU2024 With Two Months To Go

Two months to the 2024 European Parliament election!

As the countdown begins, this blog corneliushirsch.com has a new project page dedicated to providing you with exclusive insights into the political landscape based on publicly available voting intention polls from all 27 EU countries with my new European Parliament seat projection model: 2024 European Parliament Election Seat Projection. 🗳️

Key insights from today’s analysis with two months to go until June 9 include:

  • Gains & Losses: The data-driven approach reveals significant shifts in seat projections across various European Parliament groups. The right is poised for gains, while groups like Renew Europe and the Greens are likely to face losses in MEPs and influence.
  • ID Surges: Last week, I wrote a piece about the rising sea levels of support for far-right parties in Europe. The seat projection page provides a detailed breakdown of the seat gains for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which is projected to experience a notable surge in MEPs. This surge has the potential to reshape the political landscape within the European Parliament.
  • Top Contenders: With the EPP expected to maintain its position as the largest group in the European Parliament, alongside S&D and Renew Europe, the upcoming election promises to reaffirm the influence of the traditional grand coalition of center in European politics. Together, these three parties can anticipate retaining a majority of seats in the European Parliament.

    I hope, my 2024 European Parliament seat projection project can serve as a useful resource for insightful analysis of the European political landscape. Explore detailed breakdowns of individual party standings across EU countries and more. I am going to update the seat projection regularly for the next two months whenever time allows so check back in soon or bookmark this page 👉 #EU2024 👈 .