What Data Tells Us About the 2024 European Parliament Election Seat Projection

The European Parliament election is scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 in all 27 EU countries.

With three months to go until the 2024 European Parliament election, I couldn’t help myself. I was tempted to analyze the publicly available polling data to get a full picture of the current political trends across the EU and what the next European Parliament could look like.

Here’s my seat projection for the European Parliament election. It is based on voting intention polls from all 27 EU countries. I built the aggregation model entirely from scratch over the last two months, and since I do this in my free time, I appreciate any constructive feedback. If you think a party is missing or something is mislabeled, please send me an email. On this website, you can find a regularly updated version of my European Parliament election seat projection.

However, let’s delve into what the data tells us…

The center-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as their lead candidate, is poised to become the largest group in the next European Parliament, holding a significant lead over the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D).

The competition for third place is closely contested, with the far-right Identity & Democracy (ID) slightly ahead of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), as well as the liberal Renew Europe group. The Greens should anticipate losses across the board based on current polling trends. The Left is not making gains but can expect to maintain its number of MEPs in the next European Parliament.

Parties not affiliated with any political family sit as so-called non-inscrits (NI) in the European Parliament. This group currently includes prominent national parties such as the Five Star Movement from Italy and Fidesz from Hungary. Generally, this seat projection allocates parties not officially affiliated with a European Parliament group to the politically closest party group they could potentially join after the election. Political realignments could significantly impact the final composition of the next European Parliament.

The data tells us that the next European Parliament is likely to host more far-right MEPs than ever before, indicating a shift towards the political right with potential implications for EU policymaking. However, the traditional grand coalition, including the EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe, which has been formed for decades, can anticipate securing a majority after the June election. This is good news for Ursula von der Leyen, who not only needs backing from the heads of government in the European Council but also from the MEPs in the European Parliament to secure a second term as the President of the European Commission.

Main takeaways for each party group:

  • EPP: Thanks to stronger polling results in Germany, Spain, and Poland, the group has a strong lead and is projected to become the largest group with 178 seats.
  • S&D: The center-left is encountering challenges with diminishing support in the polls, not only in Germany but also in several other countries, including Romania and Portugal. Consequently, this has led to the party group trailing the EPP by 40 seats. Currently, my seat projection model estimates 138 MEPs could sit for the S&D in the next European Parliament.
  • Renew Europe: With 82 seats, the slowdown in polling trends has eased in several countries, but the liberals are still at risk of potential losses compared to their strong performance in 2019.
  • The Greens: Anticipating a potential loss of one-third of the seats they currently hold in the European Parliament, reaching 52 seats. Historically, the Greens’ strength in mobilization during European elections has been a key factor. Comparing the EP-specific voting intention polls to polls asking about national parliament voting intention suggests they could once again pin their hopes on this trend.
  • The Left: Reaching 37 seats, with stronger numbers in France. Overall, stable compared to the current seat distribution in the European Parliament.
  • ID: The far-right is stronger than ever with 94 seats, but AfD in Germany which primarily drove the recent surge has declined recently in the polls.
  • ECR: 86 seats with several parties joining or planning to join the in parts far-right group including Reconquête!, the nationalist French party founded by Éric Zemmour, and the right-wing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR).
  • Non-inscrits (NI): 53 seats, a result which is relatively high compared to other seat projections such as the one by the blog foederalist.eu which is mainly since in this seat projection, Orban’s Fidesz party continues to be counted with NI.

And the details? Look up each party in the 27 EU countries, my polling-based estimate of how many seats they could win in the European Parliament election, and identify the European Parliament group they could join based on my assessment.

As you might know, I co-founded the polling aggregation service pollofpolls.eu which was incorporated into POLITICO’s election coverage as POLITICO Poll of Polls. I recommend that everyone visit POLITICO Poll of Polls — European polls, trends and election news. My former colleagues continue to track and aggregate polling data for all upcoming elections and offer more polling data insights and trends.