Germany’s Bundestagswahl: Polling Trends Ahead of the German Snap Election on February 23, 2025
The chart shows the most recent polling Trends ahead of the German snap election and will be updated regularly.
Germany is heading to the polls earlier than expected. Originally slated for September, the federal election will now take place on February 23, 2025, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition. This marks only the fourth snap election in post-war German history, and the political landscape is shifting rapidly.
The Road to the 2025 Election
The early election was triggered by the November 2024 government crisis, when FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed, leading to the collapse of the traffic light coalition. With no clear majority left, Scholz opted for a motion of confidence, paving the way for an election that could significantly reshape Germany’s political future.
How the Electoral System Works
Germany uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system, where voters cast two votes:
- The first vote determines constituency representatives through first-past-the-post.
- The second vote determines the proportional share of seats each party receives in the Bundestag.
Parties must either surpass the 5% threshold nationwide or win at least three constituencies to enter the Bundestag. The Webster/Sainte-Laguë method is used to allocate seats fairly, ensuring proportional representation.
Polling Trends: Where Do the Parties Stand?
To gauge the shifting political landscape, I’ve aggregated publicly available voting intention polls from Wahlrecht.de, taking an average across multiple polling institutes. Individual polls provide snapshots, but combining them offers a clearer picture of overall trends and momentum.
Key Observations
- SPD’s: Olaf Scholz’s party faces an uphill battle following the coalition’s collapse.
- CDU/CSU’s Strength: The center-right bloc has been leading in most polls, but since November 2024, their support has been declining.
- AfD’s Performance: The far-right party has dominated much of the public discourse and has continued to rise in the polls, reaching second place.
- The Greens: With Robert Habeck as the lead candidate, the party has seen its numbers improve in early 2025.
- FDP: Their fate is uncertain, with polling numbers showing them just below the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats in parliament.
- BSW: The populist party led by former Left politician Sahra Wagenknecht gained attention when they emerged as a new faction in parliament. However, the party’s polling trends have declined, and it is unclear whether they will surpass the 5 percent threshold.
- The Left: Another party at risk of not making it above the minimum electoral threshold is Die Linke. Which of the three smallest parties will ultimately win seats will have significant implications for the overall seat distribution and majority math for possible coalitions.
This election will shape Germany’s future at a critical time, influencing both domestic policy and the country’s role in Europe. As we get closer to election day, I’ll continue updating this polling analysis to track any major shifts.
Any Last-Minute Shifts? Let’s Take a Closer Look
